There is not a single day without reports of casualties either on the side of security forces or on that of the Maoist insurgents. Worse, private citizens including children, women and elderly people are falling victim to the six-year-old insurgency that has taken the most violent turn as the year 2001 drew closer to the end.

People at Kafaldada village in insurgency-hit western district of Gorkha had closed their doors early in the evening to protect themselves from the fall-out of intensified conflict between the security forces and insurgents on November 17. But to no avail. A group of nearly two dozen armed Maoist rebels entered the village all of a sudden and hacked to death 75-year-old Surya Prasad Dawadi, a Nepali Congress worker, and 28-year-old school teacher Shiva Prasad Adhikari. In less than an hour, they had already fled to the safety of a nearby forest.

On the same day, security forces in Gorkha and Myagdi districts killed two suspected Maoist insurgents.

An estimated 400 people have lost their lives since the Maoist rebels unilaterally pulled out of peace talks in November this year and resumed their offensive against the government forces. For the first time in six years, they targeted Royal Nepalese Army barracks and mounted daring raids on the district headquarters of Dang, Salyan and Solukhumbu.

In response, King Gyanendra declared a nationwide state of emergency on Nov. 26 and gave nod to mobilize army personnel to contain the insurgency. The government introduced the Terrorism and Disruptive Act (Preventive) Ordinance and declared Maoists as terrorists.

In the first three weeks of their battle, the army has launched a massive ‘cordon and search operation’ in different parts of the country and has taken into custody hundreds of suspected Maoist terrorists and supporters. Hundreds of Maoist supporters, including the office-bearers of the local level parallel government units set up by the Maoists, surrendered before the local administration. “The operation is going on in an excellent way,” claimed chief of the army staff, General Prajwalla Shumsher JB Rana, in an interview with the state-owned Nepal Television.

On their part, Maoist insurgents seem to have adopted a strategy to destroy communication facilities and engage soldiers in scattered conflicts. Dozens of them have been killed while trying to blow off repeater stations of Nepal Telecommunications Corporation in remote Rolpa and Salyan districts. At least four soldiers have also been killed in the encounters.

It has become apparent now that as Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba’s government sat idle for four-long months (August-November 2001) hoping peace to prevail on its own, the Maoist rebels had a field day in re-grouping their cadres, recruiting and training new ones, raising forced donations and taking revenge with anyone who they thought did not toe their line. Despite severe criticism from the opposition, the government would not take any measures to provide law and order in the country. Instead it agreed to release 69 Maoist rebels and withdraw the Public Security Regulations only to persuade the Maoist negotiators to sit for the third round of talks early this month.

Government negotiators taking part in the talks say the rebels were never serious in the three rounds of talks that took place over the last three months. Unlike in a peace talks, from Godavari Resort and back to the same resort, the Maoist negotiators deliberately chose to highlight the points of difference with the government rather than trying to negotiate on other ‘soft issues.’ In the latest round of talks, the Maoists said they had decided to drop their demand for making Nepal a republic but insisted that they would not agree at anything less than (elections to a) constituent assembly to draft a new constitution and form an interim government. “Now the ball is in the government’s court,” said chief Maoist negotiator Krishna Bahadur Mahara after coming out of the third round of talks on November 12.

Analysts say there was asymmetry at the level of negotiators too. “While the government side was headed by high level policymakers, the Maoist side was represented by a lower level. It seemed that the Maoists negotiators did not have clear guidelines and were confused,” said Dr. Panna Kaji Amatya, professor of Political Science at the Tribhuvan University. “The Deuba government had shown utmost sincerity (to find a peaceful solution) but there is seen lack of consensus and honesty on the part of the Maoists.”

The late afternoon statement issued by top Maoist leader, Comrade Prachanda, on November 21(2001) was no less than a bombshell for the officials. In his statement faxed to major media organizations in the Nepalese capital, Prachanda alias Pushpa Kamal Dahal said there was no more justification for the four-month-old `cease-fire.’ Both the government and Maoists had agreed for an informal truce in July this year as soon as Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba assumed office, by replacing Girija Prasad Koirala, believed to be a hard-liner politician within the moderate party.

In his statement, Prachanda admitted that his party’s efforts to establish peace had been rendered unsuccessful due to the conspiracy of the ‘imperialist and reactionary forces.’ Though he did not identify who those forces were. The Maoist party has been describing the USA as an imperialist force and royal palace as a reactionary one. Saying that the Maoists would continue their struggle for a republican system of government in the country (by replacing the constitutional monarchy through the use of force), Comrade Prachanda, however, said his party had not closed doors for talks completely.

Things were not the same only ten days back. The three-member Maoist negotiation team led by Krishna Bahadur Mahara notified their government counterparts that their party had decided to drop their demand for making Nepal a republic, it could not convince the government negotiation team about the need for forming an interim government and holding elections to the constituent assembly—two major Maoist demands.

Emerging out of the marathon five-hour long debate on Nov. 12, Mahara told reporters that his party could not bow further. “The ball is now in the government’s court,” said Mahara. Chief government negotiator, Chiranjivi Wagle, insisted that as the Maoists had withdrawn their demand for a republic state, their other demands could be fulfilled within the ambit of the country’s constitution. “(We have conveyed to them that) There is no need to go for a constituent assembly,” he added.

The reasons behind the Maoist leader’s statement could not be known immediately but analysts said it could be one more ploy on the part of the underground party to pressurize the government. Critics said it could be the Maoist leadership’s ploy to quell the growing dissension within its rank and file.

As the negotiations prolonged, people at large were feeling disenchanted. The first round of talks on August 30 had ended after fulfilling mere formality. In the second round of talks at the Tiger Tops Resort in the mid-western district of Bardiya in the middle of September, the Maoist side formally put its agenda to which the government side made initial response. The third round of talks, too, failed to give any way out to the complex issue.

It seemed that the Maoists were trying to be flexible while dealing with the government but couldn’t leave behind their agenda under pressure from their cadres. In an interview with pro-Maoist "Jana Disha" daily (that has closed its publications after the emergency was declared), chairman of the Maoist party Comrade Prachanda said his party had decided to focus on the issue of elections to the constituent assembly “to award the right to the sovereign people to decide on the issue of (making Nepal a) republic." “Now we have to see if the government opposes (our proposal for the elections of) the constituent assembly under pressure from the anti-national and fascist forces or moves ahead by taking the people into confidence,” said the Maoist leader.

“The talks resulted into nothing but chaos,” said Dr. Krishna Hachhethu, a political scientist. “It seems the local commanders of the Maoists were against the talks and it was unlikely that the Maoist leadership would join the mainstream unless the present constitution was amended.”

A little known outfit, the CPN (Maoist) has emerged as a major political force in the country by employing sheer violence by launching the so-called ‘people’s war.’ The death of nearly 2,500 people over the last six years has left a bloody trail behind. As the government, buoyed by international support, is trying hard to overcome economic hardships in the country and find resources to finance what seems going to be a prolonged battle, the insurgents too don’t seem in a mood to give up. As the chances of peace restoring again seem remote now, the days ahead for Nepali people are going to be full of chaos, confusion and pain. Perhaps, this is a price an underdeveloped country like Nepal, sandwiched between two giant neighbours, has had to pay before moving toward a path of peace, stability and development.